Debunking Pro-Vaccine Arguments in the Kirsch/Wilf $2M Debate
By BEN
The following is a detailed rebuttal of the arguments presented by Wilf for the pro-vaccine side in this high-stakes discussion.
Steve Kirsch and Wilf are engaged in a multi-round debate with $2 million at stake. The central question: Do the “COVID-19 vaccines” provide a net benefit? Based on the evidence I have reviewed, my position is clear: The covid-19 vaccines have not been shown to have a net benefit. In fact, the data suggests a relatively weak but discernible net harm. This analysis focuses solely on identifying flaws in Wilf’s pro-vaccine position.
General Remarks & Fallacies by Wilf
Later, Wilf remarks that in the past, death signals from vaccination would have been detected. However, concluding that the same would inevitably occur this time is a flawed assumption and represents a logical fallacy.
In addition, he highlights that the mechanism of action causing harm or death would not be unknown. Contrarily, Pfizer explicitly states that ‘the exact immunologic mechanism that confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 is unknown.’ This implies they do not fully understand how their product is even supposed to work.
In contrast, there are at least two plausible mechanisms for harm:
- Direct cell inflammation and potential cell death caused by lipid nanoparticles (LNP), as described by Ndeupen et al., 2021.
- The immune system attacks cells that produce the “supposedly foreign” or harmful antigen. This occurs due to the widespread distribution of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) throughout the body, leading to the destruction of cells in multiple organs, including the heart and brain.
Moreover, vaccine-critical studies have been subjected to significantly more scrutiny, suppression, and even outright banning by journals and certain authors. This double standard raises valid concerns about bias in the academic and scientific discourse surrounding vaccines.
Wilf also overlooks two critical motivations that shape the broader vaccine narrative:
- Government Objectives: Governments primarily aim to calm the public and maintain order during crises. Tools like masks, tests, and vaccines serve as tangible measures to reassure the public. However, whether these tools are effective is often a secondary concern, as the primary motivation of governments is typically to control the narrative and preserve authority.
- Pharmaceutical Industry Incentives: The incentives for pharmaceutical companies are clear. With liability protections in place, these companies effectively operate with a blank check, profiting immensely as long as public fear—and thus demand—can be sustained. This is facilitated by significant influence over the media, where the pharmaceutical industry is the major force in advertising spending. Compounding this issue, these companies often conduct their own trials, creating an inherent conflict of interest that undermines trust in the results.
These considerations highlight critical gaps in Wilf’s arguments and underscore the importance of scrutinizing both the evidence and the motivations driving the vaccine narrative.
Establishing the Meaning of Net Benefit
The term Net Benefit implies that the benefits must significantly outweigh the harms, meaning notably more lives are saved than harmed.
There are three main types of evidence to consider to answer the question of net-benefit:
1. Studies that prove causality: These include prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, which are the gold standard for establishing cause and effect.
2. Confirmed reports and harm statistics: Documented cases and data that provide evidence of adverse outcomes.
3. Post-marketing studies: These studies assess real-world data but can only indicate correlation and cannot definitively establish causation.
So what are the results of the above when it comes to the COVID-19 vaccines:
1. COVID-19 Vaccine Results from Manufacturer RCTs
Efficacy
- Non-representative study population
- Testing discouraged <7 days after vaccination
- Lack of relevant clinical endpoints
- Early unblinding
- High dropout rates
- Possible unblinding via PCR tag
- Unknown mechanism of immunity
- Neutralizing antibody timeline mismatch
A detailed article including sources can be found here.
Wilf correctly points out that the studies show no sign. death signal. However, it is important to note that the study population was exceptionally healthy, as individuals at high risk for severe COVID-19 were explicitly excluded. This raises a significant concern: How can a study, primarily designed to evaluate protection against severe illness and death, demonstrate any meaningful effect when the very people most likely to benefit were excluded from participation?
The endpoints used in the studies were inadequate for establishing clinically meaningful efficacy. The only truly relevant endpoint was all-cause morbidity and mortality, yet only mortality was reported, leaving a significant gap in assessing the vaccine’s overall impact. Here’s an overview of the prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials that were conducted for vaccines later administered in the West:
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff31393c2-7e91-4945-bc6e-d55ba4e40e75_1714x672.png)
- mRNA Vaccines:
- All-Cause Mortality: No benefit (RR = 1.03)
- COVID-19 Mortality: Reduced (RR = 0.4)
- Non-COVID Mortality: Elevated (RR = 1.16)
- Adenovector Vaccines:
- All-Cause Mortality: Significant benefit (RR = 0.38).
- COVID-19 Mortality: Strong reduction (RR = 0.18).
- Non-COVID Mortality: Unexpected reduction (RR = 0.5), raising concerns of imbalance or trial irregularities.
Evident from the above data, the mRNA vaccines, the most commonly used in the West, show no benefit for all-cause mortality (RR = 1.03) and may increase non-COVID deaths (RR = 1.16). Adenovector vaccines report suspiciously large reductions in non-COVID mortality, raising concerns about potential trial issues. This has been confirmed by a peer reviewed article by Benn et al., 2023.
Notably, all trials were unblinded early, with observation periods lasting less than 3 months (e.g., Pfizer). This limited timeframe is inadequate for detecting medium- to long-term side effects, making it impossible to fully assess potential harms. While follow-up periods were longer, the early unblinding disrupted the balance between groups, rendering proper comparison of all-cause mortality unreliable.
Conclusion: None of the RCTs convincingly demonstrated lives saved, leaving the potential for harm unresolved due to the much healthier population and short observation.
2. Confirmed reports and harm
Individual Case Reports
Myocarditis Autopsy Study
VAERS Data
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc5c985c-a1d6-4cf7-84be-4161c222f6e8_2432x802.png)
Official German Cause of Death Statistics
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e8c4b4c-f495-4301-835c-a2a7f083acaa_1716x1478.png)
The Statistics Office has confirmed that at least a significant portion of these cases can be directly attributed to COVID-19 vaccination. A more detailed FOIA request by me is currently pending.
Interim Conclusion
3. Observational Studies
Analysis of the entire Hungarian population
- Exclusion of partially vaccinated adults: UK data shows highest mortality in this group.
- Health-related variability: Structural indicators vary across vaccination groups, confounded by general health status.
- Moderna lower survival probability: Highlighted in Figure 2.
- Short observation period: Only 4 months (Apr-Aug 2021), highest mortality observed in partially vaccinated.
- Person-year miscalculation: Potential errors if vaccination date reporting is inaccurate.
Conclusion: The study fails to provide valid evidence of vaccine efficacy due to its very short observation period (4 months), significant confounding, and incomplete cohort comparisons (e.g., ever vaccinated vs. unvaccinated). Similar to the recently published Norwegian study, it cannot demonstrate that mortality rates are indeed equal to or lower in the vaccinated cohort compared to those without the intervention.
Comparing ACM across countries and time
When comparing all-cause mortality across countries, it becomes evident that while vaccines appeared to have an impact in 2021, several other confounders are the primary drivers of excess deaths.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95e6b451-c2f2-46bf-bdc4-e44dfe131a2d_1200x1200.png)
For instance, after adjusting mortality rates for the confounding variable “extreme poverty,” any positive correlation with vaccination disappears entirely.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5218bb0-f26f-42bd-b18c-3d11fe8bbd39_1800x670.png)
The significant impact of poverty on mortality has been well-documented, as highlighted by Ioannidis et al. (2023): “Excess deaths (as a proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (r = -0.60) and positively correlated with the proportion living in poverty (r = 0.66).”
ED of Republicans and Democrats
- Movement During the Pandemic: Population movement, especially starting in mid 2020, after the initial lockdowns, may have severely affected the AI-based name-matching algorithm used to link voter registration and mortality records. This could lead to significant errors in matching mortality to the individuals.
- Limited Timeframe: The analysis only extends until 2021. To robustly attribute the observed effects to vaccination, data beyond 2022 is essential. If mortality rates converge after 2021 back to no differences between R/D voters, it would indicate vaccination effectiveness; if not, it could suggest confounding factors or other effects.
- Societal and Long-Term Factors: Stress, lockdown-related effects, economic hardship, drug overdoses, and other long-term societal impacts cannot be ruled out as contributors to excess mortality, disproportionally affecting R voters.
- State-Level Discrepancies: The presumed effect is much less visible in Florida but more pronounced in Ohio, suggesting the observed differences may result from factors other than vaccination or party affiliation.
- Age Adjustment Issues: The study only adjusts for broad age bins. Republican voters, being older on average, may exhibit higher relative effects of mortality impact, which could bias the results.
- Short Baseline Fit: The baseline is based on a two-year fit (2018–2019) using a Poisson regression model at the county-by-party-by-age level. This short period risks producing artifacts, especially given seasonal or structural trends in mortality. Additionally, no confidence intervals (CIs) are provided for these baseline estimates. This fact alone should immediately dismiss the validity of the study.
- No Adjustment for Sex or Race: The study does not account for sex or race, both of which are critical factors in mortality and could confound the observed results.
- Timing of Divergence: The divergence in mortality begins much earlier than the smoothed line suggests, around mid-2020. This timing predates vaccine availability, suggesting that non-vaccine factors played a significant role.
- Data and Code Not Publicly Available: The lack of public access to the dataset and analysis code prevents independent verification and replication of the study’s findings, reducing transparency and credibility.
The study’s findings are significantly undermined by its methodological flaws. The observed differences in excess mortality, attributed to political affiliation, are likely a proxy for other structural and behavioral factors, such as rural vs. urban residence, socioeconomic disparities, healthcare access, and vaccination behavior. A more robust analysis would require individual vaccination data, adjustments for key demographics, and a longer timeframe to draw valid conclusions. The focus on political affiliation appears overstated and overly politicized.
EDs are Covid
- COVID-19 Death Classification in Western CountriesMost western countries have incentivized the classification of seasonal respiratory illnesses as COVID-19. Additionally, many apply their own death certificate modeling systems, such as the CDC’s NVSS/MMDS. Source
- Origin & Clinical Relevance of Found SequenceThe origin & clinical significance of the identified sequence remains unknown to this day. Source
- PCR Primer Similarity to the Human GenomeThe PCR primers used for COVID-19 testing have a high similarity to the human genome. Source
- Limitations of Wastewater SurveillanceEven wastewater surveillance cannot substantiate claims that COVID-19 was a novel virus or provide precise assessments of viral levels. The method involves pooling genetic material from multiple strains and individuals, complicating attribution. Furthermore, no pre-2020 data exists to validate these techniques as a reliable control. Source
- Clinical Validation of COVID-19 PCR TestsThe COVID-19 PCR test has never undergone clinical validation to demonstrate specificity or predictive accuracy for diagnosing COVID-19. In hospitals, many positive results were incidental, meaning individuals tested positive but were not ill with respiratory conditions like COVID-19. Source
All of this raises significant doubts about whether the excess deaths can genuinely be attributed to an assumed novel pathogen.
ED in countries with Zero Covid
The countries cited are predominantly island nations, which may have created the appearance of controlling the virus through border closures and quarantine measures. However, scientific evidence does not conclusively support the effectiveness of these strategies in completely stopping viral spread. Instead, the observed outcomes may have simply sustained an illusion of control within the population.
Notably, after reopening, many of these highly vaccinated countries experienced significant excess mortality over multiple years. For example, Singapore, with a vaccination rate of 94%, recorded substantial excess mortality, especially in the elderly population—but only starting in 2021.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcbcb6b63-560e-4088-bbfc-af952279efdd_1200x668.png)
Similarly, Taiwan, another highly vaccinated nation, experienced a comparable trend.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7608b742-234d-4a5d-a1ee-ac2497c3b31e_1200x668.png)
These figures challenge the assumption of a highly effective vaccine. In contrast, some countries with lower vaccination rates—such as Luxembourg, Denmark, and Germany—reported little to no notable excess mortality. A full ranking can be found here.
Wilf should investigate whether these deaths could be linked to mechanisms such as Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE) or other vaccine-related factors that may exacerbate disease outcomes. Alternatively, he should assess whether these excess deaths are genuinely attributable to SARS-CoV-2 or if other contributing factors better explain the observed trends. Data from the Mortality Watch Excess Ranking, based on age-standardized deaths and a conservative 3-year pre-pandemic baseline, reveals at least two dozen countries that did not exhibit statistically significant excess mortality during the 2020–2023 period. These findings challenge the notion of a universally impactful pandemic and warrant further scrutiny into regional disparities and underlying causes.
Saved by the Vaccine
Wilf’s argument regarding “neutralizing antibodies,” which are demonstrated in vitro to neutralize the virus, is fundamentally flawed. Antibodies are not inherently specific to this virus, and their levels are merely determined by concentration (titers). In fact, most antibodies may be found in small quantities across all individuals, rendering their purported specificity questionable.
Moreover, no studies have conclusively shown a correlation between antibody levels and improved clinical outcomes. As such, the argument lacks empirical support and is ultimately moot.
Israeli data
Effect on cases and CFR
Covid Deaths by Vaccination Status
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85ac3981-49f4-457e-8b55-9f8f3dc712df_1456x1028.webp)
In summary, the chart suffers from at least three major issues:
- Use of unreliable dataThe analysis relies on biased, uncontrolled, and unvalidated COVID-19 testing data, rather than objective, gold-standard metrics like all-cause mortality.
- Exclusion of relevant dataVaccinated individuals are only considered “fully vaccinated” 14 days after their second dose. This approach omits at least five critical weeks of data, including the period immediately following vaccination, which could influence outcomes.
- Misclassification of vaccination statusThe “unvaccinated” group likely includes a significant number of vaccinated individuals whose vaccination status could not be matched or verified. For example, in Germany, approximately 80% of individuals’ vaccination statuses are unknown, leading to severe misclassification.
These issues are not unique to U.S. data; similar problems exist in datasets from other countries. On the other hand, data from New Zealand provides a contrasting perspective. It shows that mortality rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated groups are similar, and the country experienced no statistically significant excess mortality during the pandemic. This, along with Sweden’s experience, serves as evidence that there was no widespread health crisis requiring extraordinary measures to begin with.
Covid Deaths by Vaccination Rates
Calculating Lives Saved
Summary
Hard evidence, including ICD-10 coded vaccine-related deaths, confirmed autopsies, and detailed case reports, clearly demonstrates that these vaccines can cause harm and even death.
Observational studies, despite their volume, are riddled with methodological flaws that render their conclusions unreliable. Issues such as insufficient evidence, methodological weaknesses, and pervasive confounding are pervasive. Additionally, societal and lockdown measures disproportionately impacted unvaccinated individuals, especially from mid-2021, when significant societal pressure and mental stress were placed on them. Social exclusion and related stress led to further disruptions, including relocation (skewing population data/denominators), changes in life routines (e.g., commuting, eating habits), and increased drug use, complicating the interpretation of these studies even further.
These considerations underscore that there is no solid basis to claim that the net effect of vaccines can ever be shown to be causally positive. The belief that “vaccines work” appears to remain a matter of faith rather than scientific evidence.
Original source: https://www.usmortality.com/p/debunking-pro-vaccine-arguments-in